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THE ISRAEL/PALESTINE PEACE ACCORD. STRAIGHT FACTS.

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ISRAEL AND HAMAS HAVE GOTTEN NTO "PHASE ONE" OF A PEACE ACCORD


TIMELINE IN OCTOBER:


  • October 8: Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of the peace plan mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump, Egypt, and Qatar.


  • October 9: Israel's cabinet approved the framework for the deal late in the evening.


  • October 10: The ceasefire took effect at 12 p.m. local time, at which point the Israeli military began withdrawing troops from parts of the Gaza Strip. 


First, a caveat: as of right now, nothing like a fully detailed, final “peace treaty” has been publicly published or verified. What is available is a ceasefire/peace-framework agreement (sometimes called “phase one” of a broader plan) that Israel, Hamas, and mediators have accepted. The details are still unsettled on many critical issues. Below is a clear, simplified summary of what is known, what remains to be decided, and how the roles of Hamas, Israel, and foreign actors might play out.


What the current accord does (or will) require

Here’s a breakdown of the main elements already agreed (or claimed) under the new deal:

  1. Ceasefire / halt to hostilities

  2. Hostage / prisoner exchange

    • Hamas agrees to release all living hostages in custody, and return the remains of deceased hostages, usually within a set period (e.g. 72 hours) after the withdrawal is completed. Wikipedia+4AP News+4The Guardian+4

    • In return, Israel will release a large number of Palestinian prisoners—women, children, and others—held in Israeli jails. TIME+4AP News+4The Guardian+4

  3. Reconstruction, humanitarian relief, and reopening borders

  4. Phased approach / future stages

What remains unsettled / controversial

These are the big “open questions” that the accord doesn’t yet resolve (or resolves only vaguely):

  • Disarmament of Hamas: Will Hamas have to give up all its weapons and military capacity? The deal language speaks of “demilitarization,” but exactly when, to what extent, and how to enforce that remains unclear. The Guardian+3CSIS+3The Washington Post+3

  • Gaza governance / who runs Gaza: The accord does not clearly say Hamas will continue to govern Gaza. There is speculation that governance will shift, perhaps gradually. CSIS+4The Washington Post+4TIME+4

  • Future Israeli presence: Even with withdrawal, Israel might retain certain security control (airspace, borders) or forces near Gaza. CSIS+3The Guardian+3AP News+3

  • Enforcement / guarantees: How will violations be monitored or punished? What recourse will either side have if the other backs out? CSIS+3The Washington Post+3TIME+3

  • Role of Palestinian Authority (PA): Will the PA (which governs parts of the West Bank) eventually take control in Gaza? That’s suggested in some plans, but not yet guaranteed. AP News+5The Washington Post+5The Guardian+5

  • Timeline and sequencing: Who does what when (withdrawals, disarmament, transfers of power) is still contested.

Who will (or might) run Gaza — Hamas, Israel, or others?

Here’s a simplified view of the possibilities under the accord, with what is most likely given current statements:

  • Hamas is not guaranteed to continue as ruler of Gaza under all these proposals. The plan seems to envisage its military capabilities being curtailed and its role reduced. Wikipedia+4The Washington Post+4The Guardian+4

  • Some proposals suggest Gaza will be managed by technocrats or an independent administrative body (not explicitly tied to Hamas), at least in the short term. The Guardian+3The Washington Post+3TIME+3

  • Over time, after reforms, there may be a transition to control by the Palestinian Authority, especially if Hamas has been demilitarized or sidelined. CSIS+3TIME+3AP News+3

  • Israel is unlikely to directly “run” Gaza under the accord, though it may retain security oversight (checking weapons, controlling borders, or air space). CSIS+4The Guardian+4AP News+4

So in plain terms: Hamas’s direct control is expected to be curtailed or phased out, governance will shift to non-military, more neutral (or internationally supervised) bodies, and eventually possibly to the Palestinian Authority — if the transition conditions are met.

The role of foreign countries and mediators

Foreign actors are central to the peace deal — as mediators, guarantors, funders, supervisors, and possibly operators of oversight mechanisms. Here’s what their roles look like:

  1. Mediators / facilitators

  2. Supervision / guarantees / monitoring

  3. Funding and reconstruction

    • Gulf states and donor nations are expected to fund rebuilding efforts in Gaza — rebuilding homes, infrastructure, hospitals, etc. The Times of India+2TIME+2

    • The financial role of international bodies (World Bank, UN agencies) will be critical in distributing aid, ensuring transparency, and holding actors accountable.

  4. Border control / aid safeguards

    • Egypt will likely retain a significant role, because Gaza shares a border with Egypt (especially the Rafah crossing) — controlling that crossing, managing who/what enters or exits Gaza. AP News+3Reuters+3TIME+3

    • International actors may supervise how and when goods, people, and aid cross between Israel and Gaza to ensure no weapons smuggling.

  5. Security guarantees

    • Some foreign states may give security assurances, e.g. pledging support if one side violates the agreement.

    • They may also help enforce disarmament, as peacekeeping or monitoring forces (though in the current deal, there is no large deployment of foreign troops into Gaza). CSIS+3The Washington Post+3AP News+3


Summary: What to expect (and what to watch out for)

  • The current accord is a framework / first phase, not yet a comprehensive treaty.

  • It spells out a ceasefire, withdrawal, hostage/prisoner swaps, humanitarian access, and reconstruction—but it does not yet settle who will run Gaza, how disarmament happens, or how long the transition period lasts.

  • Hamas’s military role is expected to be diminished; governance is projected to shift toward neutral technocrats and eventually to the Palestinian Authority, under foreign supervision.

  • Foreign countries (especially Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the U.S.) are critical players — as mediators, guarantors, funders, and monitors.

  • Key risks: agreements breaking down, failure to implement disarmament, disputes over governance, hidden military capacities, or new escalations if one side accuses the other of violations.

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