The Rise and Fall of the Florida Republican Party: From MAGA Wave to Internal War

IF FLORIDA REPUBLICANS DON;T GE IT TOGETHER, THE MIDTERMS WILL BE BAD

Florida’s Republican Party has experienced a dramatic journey over the past decade – rising to dominance under Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis, only to be pulled apart by internal conflicts and lost strategic focus. Once the nation’s political bellwether, Florida now serves as a cautionary tale of how success, if poorly managed, can erode a movement from within.

MAGA’s Sunshine State Surge

Florida’s transformation into a Republican stronghold began with the populist rise of Donald J. Trump in 2016. His unapologetic America First message resonated deeply across the state, helping him carry Florida in both 2016 and 2020. The Florida GOP thrived, flipping voter registration from a Democratic advantage to a Republican lead of over one million by 2024. This surge energized conservatives statewide and created an aura of invincibility.

Ron DeSantis, a relatively unknown congressman, rode that wave to victory in 2018, narrowly winning the governor’s mansion thanks to Trump’s high-profile endorsement. As governor, DeSantis earned national praise for keeping Florida open during COVID-19 and for his aggressive push against progressive ideologies in education. By 2022, he had become a conservative icon, winning reelection by nearly 20 points and even carrying traditionally Democratic Miami-Dade County.

Property-Tax Reform as Political Capital: DeSantis and the Florida GOP

In early 2025, DeSantis announced a plan to issue $1,000 rebate checks to Florida homeowners and proposed a constitutional amendment to eliminate or dramatically reduce homestead property taxes. The move, unveiled ahead of a possible 2028 presidential bid, was seen by many as a populist masterstroke — and by others, as a politically timed bribe to voters.

The governor framed property taxes as a form of government rent, claiming that “property taxes effectively require homeowners to pay rent to the government.” While his argument resonated with conservatives, local officials warned that removing property taxes would gut essential services like schools and police. Analysts estimated an $18.5 billion revenue loss across Florida’s counties. Critics saw the plan as a cynical attempt to rebuild national favor after DeSantis’s failed 2024 presidential campaign.

Sidebar: Voices on Florida’s Property-Tax Overhaul

• Governor DeSantis: “Property taxes effectively require homeowners to pay rent to government.”

• Local Officials: Warn of reduced fiscal autonomy and cuts to core services.

• Policy Analysts: Estimate over $18 billion in annual losses for schools and counties.

• Florida GOP Insiders: Divided, with Speaker Daniel Perez remarking, “The Governor has not produced a plan. Period.”

Chart: Florida Property-Tax Revenue Composition, 2024School Boards: 44% — Counties: 27% — Municipalities: 18% — Special Districts: 11%

This episode typifies the party’s current ailment: the pursuit of short-term populist optics over sustainable, institutional reform.

The Trump–DeSantis Schism and the 2024–25 Presidential Fallout

DeSantis’s alliance with Trump — once his political foundation — became his undoing. Trump boosted DeSantis to victory in 2018, but by 2023, DeSantis had emerged as Trump’s most formidable rival. His decision to run for president in 2024, backed by Bush-era donors and old-guard Republicans, was viewed by many MAGA loyalists as a betrayal.

DeSantis’s campaign stumbled amid poor debate performances and Trump’s relentless attacks. By early 2024, DeSantis suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, admitting, “It’s clear Republican voters want to give Donald Trump another chance.” The damage, however, was done. DeSantis lost much of his grassroots support, and his national stature collapsed.

Quote Box:

• Trump (2018): “He’s a smart guy; he’s a great guy.”

• Trump (2023): “If I didn’t endorse him, he wouldn’t have won.”

• DeSantis (2023): “A movement can’t be about one personality. If all we are is listless vessels, that’s not going to last.”

This feud fractured the Florida GOP, draining donor resources and confusing voters. It also revealed a system that rewards personal ambition over party building.

A Party at War with Itself

Beneath Florida’s Republican success lies a widening divide between the establishment and the MAGA grassroots. Groups like Defend Florida and Moms for Liberty accuse GOP leadership of blocking MAGA-aligned activists from local offices. Internal party elections have become proxy wars between loyal Trump populists and institutional Republicans.

Party insiders fear this will weaken Florida’s electoral machinery. The grassroots, however, see it as a necessary revolution — the only way to purge complacent elites and make the GOP truly accountable to its voters.

Red State, Blue Governance

Despite GOP dominance statewide, Democrats continue to control local governments in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. These regions remain pipelines for Democratic talent, while Republicans struggle to gain footholds. Florida’s GOP has not invested enough in recruiting viable local candidates, leading to a mismatch: Republican control in Tallahassee, but Democratic dominance in the counties that drive population and policy.

Neglected Issues: Growth, Water, and Overdevelopment

Florida’s environment and infrastructure are being squeezed by overpopulation and overbuilding. The 2023 passage of SB 540, which penalizes citizens for challenging land-use decisions, symbolized the GOP’s tilt toward developers over conservationists. Environmental advocates called it a “death knell for smart growth,” warning it will inflict irreparable harm on groundwater and the Everglades.

Meanwhile, Democrats use these issues to court moderates and transplants from blue states, framing themselves as protectors of Florida’s future. Republicans risk appearing indifferent to the very quality-of-life concerns that attract new residents.

Righting the Ship: A Path Forward

1. Rebuild from the Ground Up: Encourage MAGA-aligned conservatives to engage constructively in local party committees and elections.

2. Develop New Talent: Establish mentorship and candidate training to produce credible conservative officeholders across Florida.

3. Reclaim Real Issues: Address growth, infrastructure, and environment with pragmatic conservative solutions.

4. Demand Accountability: Use primaries to replace opportunists with principled leaders.

5. Unify the Movement: End internal feuds and rally behind future MAGA leadership, whether Trump or his successor (e.g., JD Vance).

Conclusion: Florida’s GOP rose on populist energy but risks collapse through arrogance and complacency. The path forward lies in unity, discipline, and renewed focus on governance that serves people, not personalities.