IN WASHINGTON DC, TRUMP PREPARES TO BRING LAW TO THE SOCIALIST UTOPIA

lhpgop
Aug 12
3 min read

TRUMP PREPARES TO DO BATTLE WITH THE CRIMERATE OF D.C.

Washington, DC Crime: What the Citywide Averages Hide

Executive takeaways

After a disastrous 2023 (274 murders), 2024 crime fell sharply—but D.C. still posted the 4th-highest homicide rate among large U.S. cities (27.3 per 100k). Citywide wins mask the fact that most violence concentrates outside Wards 2–3. Metropolitan Police Department The Washington Post The Times
2025 YTD continues to trend down (violent crime −26% vs. the same period in 2024), yet hot spots in Wards 7–8and parts of 5–6 remain stubborn. Metropolitan Police Department
Carjackings: peaked in June 2023 (≈140 incidents) and are down ~75% by June 2025—still elevated vs. pre-2020. My WordPress
Why averages mislead: Wards 2–3 are relatively safe and affluent and contain about 23% of D.C.’s population; including them in one “citywide” number pulls down the average risk experienced in the rest of the city. Census Reporter+2Census Reporter+2

Bottom line: To protect the neighborhoods that bear the brunt of shootings, robberies, and drug markets, a federal surge focused on the violent PSAs (not the brunch districts) can compress violent networks and let MPD keep the gains.

What the latest numbers say

Citywide, year-end 2024 vs. 2023 (MPD official):

Homicide 274 → 187 (−32%)
Sex abuse 191 → 143 (−25%)
ADW 1,412 → 1,026 (−27%)
Robbery 3,468 → 2,113 (−39%)
Violent crime (total) 5,345 → 3,469 (−35%) Metropolitan Police Department

Still high by national standards: D.C.’s 2024 homicide rate 27.3/100k ranked 4th-highest nationwide; 2023 was the worst in two decades. The Times The Washington Post

Mid-2025 trend: MPD YTD shows violent crime −26%; CCJ shows carjackings down ~75% from the 2023 peak. Metropolitan Police Department My WordPress

(See the first and third charts above.)

Why the “citywide average” is deceptive

Wards 2–3 profile:
- Ward 2: 78,878 people, 5.9 sq mi (Georgetown, Foggy Bottom, downtown).
- Ward 3: 78,404 people, 10.4 sq mi (AU Park, Cathedral Heights, Palisades).
- Combined, they house ~157k residents—≈23% of the city—yet account for a small share of serious violence. Census Reporter+2Census Reporter+2
Spatial concentration: MPD’s public Crime Cards show clusters of homicides, robberies, gun assaults overwhelmingly outside Wards 2–3—especially in Wards 7–8 and parts of 5–6. DC Crime CardsData.gov

(See the population share pie above; it shows how a safer 23% slice pulls the citywide mean down.)

Why “new-age community policing alone” hasn’t solved it

Accountability gap: In 2022 the U.S. Attorney’s Office for D.C. declined ~67% of arrests headed to Superior Court—almost double 2015. Fewer consequences blunt deterrence in hot spots. WTOP News
System capacity: MPD clearance rates have improved, but court backlogs and limited detention for repeat violent offenders keep cycles going. Metropolitan Police Department
Youth pipeline: Severe truancy and after-school coverage gaps east of the river correlate with the 2023 robbery/carjacking surge; under-resourced interventions struggle to keep pace. Metropolitan Police Department

The case for a targeted federal surge (and why not in Wards 2–3)

Goals: incapacitate the small share of violent actors driving most shootings/robberies; shut down open-air drug corridors; raise the “certainty of consequence” while MPD rebuilds local, sustainable control.

What it looks like (90–180 days):

Joint task forces (FBI/ATF/DEA/USMS + MPD) prioritize gun-involved assaults, homicides, carjackings, and drug/robbery conspiracies in the top hot-spot PSAs (primarily outside Wards 2–3). Use federal statutes where eligible (firearms, carjacking, Hobbs Act) for firmer detention/penalties. Metropolitan Police Department
Warrant & gun interdiction blitz in micro-hot spots surfaced by Crime Cards—weekly cycles with visible takedowns, followed by MPD saturation patrols. DC Crime Cards
Real off-ramps tied to compliance: expand after-school seats and attendance enforcement in Wards 7–8; link job/education pipelines to record-sealing upon verified program completion. (Addressing the truancy/idle-time driver.) Metropolitan Police Department
Transparent scorecard: weekly public metrics (illegal gun recoveries, federal indictments, shootings, carjackings) by ward/PSA, so residents see progress where they live. (MPD already posts the base series.) Metropolitan Police Department

Why exclude Wards 2–3 from the surge footprint?Resources are finite. Those wards already report comparatively low serious-violence rates and have dense private and federal protective presence; saturating them pads stats but doesn’t save lives where shootings occur. DC Crime Cards

What success should look like (12–18 months)

Sustained reductions vs. 2023 baseline:
- Homicide and gun assaults −40–50% in hot-spot PSAs;
- Robbery −40%;
- Carjackings maintained at or below mid-2025 levels. (CCJ/MPD series). My WordPress Metropolitan Police Department
Case flow: higher proportion of the worst violent cases charged federally; shorter time from arrest → indictment.
Youth engagement: after-school seat gap narrowed; chronic truancy down materially in Wards 7–8. Metropolitan Police Department