Europe's Endgame: Why the EU Might Try to Sideline the U.S. and Drag Out the Ukraine War

ON THIS CHESSBOARD, EVERYONE IS MAKING MOVES

In the grand chessboard of global power, the European Union has quietly begun repositioning its pieces—not just against Russia, but against its longtime ally: the United States. With President Trump reinstated and pushing for economic reindustrialization and strategic recalibration, the EU appears to be preparing for a scenario in which it must go it alone in Ukraine. This isn’t merely a matter of defense spending or diplomatic divergence—it’s shaping up as a full-spectrum confrontation involving economic lawfare, political subversion, and ideological brinksmanship.

The "Go-It-Alone" Gamble

Recent maneuvers out of Brussels, Paris, and Berlin suggest a deepening determination to assert European primacy in Ukraine, even if it means clashing with the Trump administration. France has floated renewed security guarantees to Kyiv. Germany is quietly expanding arms shipments through EU defense mechanisms. At the same time, the EU is preparing to bankroll Ukraine’s post-war economy with a continent-wide reconstruction effort—intended, in part, to reduce Kyiv’s reliance on Washington.

But this is not merely about independence. It's about control.

Should Trump broker a ceasefire or peace deal with Russia that falls short of full Ukrainian territorial restoration, Brussels may reject it outright. Their calculus is twofold: (1) a frozen conflict would reward Moscow and embolden populists across Europe, and (2) the EU would lose its leverage over Eastern Europe—a region it has long attempted to bind through regulation and finance.

So instead, the EU may prolong the war—not militarily, but through diplomatic and legal warfare.

Tariffs, Lawfare, and the War Over Economic Sovereignty

Enter the weaponization of international courts.

Just as President Trump moves to recalibrate tariffs to protect U.S. industry and negotiate trade deals favorable to American labor, a lawsuit has emerged challenging the legality of those tariffs. The plaintiffs are multinational firms with deep European ties. The legal teams? Largely globalist firms embedded within the EU’s neoliberal bureaucratic framework. The message is unmistakable: If Washington won’t play by the old rules, we’ll make the rules hurt.

This lawfare assault dovetails perfectly with Europe’s Ukraine policy. By undermining

Trump’s economic leverage—his strongest domestic and geopolitical tool—Brussels hopes to weaken his ability to broker peace on U.S. terms. The strategy is clear: drain U.S. economic strength, isolate it diplomatically, and outlast it politically.

The Fatal Flaw: Europe Can’t Afford the War It Wants

But here's the catch: Europe is broke. And broken.

The EU’s economy is teetering under the combined weight of mass immigration, energy scarcity, and deindustrialization. Inflation remains high. Social services are stretched thin. In France, Italy, and Germany, public anger over migrant violence and collapsing welfare systems is reaching a boil. The same left-wing governments pushing for ideological victory in Ukraine are barely maintaining domestic order.

And politically, the EU faces internal revolt. In the Netherlands, Finland, and Hungary, populists are gaining power. In France, Le Pen’s resurgence threatens Macron’s globalist ambitions. If the EU continues to wage a proxy war it cannot win and cannot afford, its internal cohesion may shatter.

Trump, NATO, and the Illusion of Transatlantic Unity

President Trump doesn’t need to defeat the EU—he simply needs to outlast it.

If the U.S. cuts back on Ukraine funding, Europe may pick up the slack temporarily. But the strain will be massive. Public patience will wear thin. Energy and food prices will surge. And without U.S. strategic backing, the military effort will lose coherence. NATO itself may fracture—not through an overt withdrawal, but through irrelevance.

This is why the EU is turning to lawfare. It's the last terrain where it believes it can checkmate Trump: the courtroom, not the battlefield.

But that, too, is a bluff. The American electorate is tired of wars without end. The judicial system, already overloaded and distrusted, is ill-suited to regulate foreign policy. And every lawsuit launched against Trump’s tariffs only fuels his narrative: that the globalist elite is conspiring to weaken America.

Conclusion: The Illusion of Strength Is Not Strength

Europe may posture as the last principled defender of Ukraine. It may cloak itself in legal jargon and diplomatic virtue. But without economic fuel and political unity, its strategy is a hollow gambit. In its desperation to defy Trump and preserve its decaying order, the EU may trigger the very collapse it fears most.

Trump doesn’t have to fight them. He only has to watch them fall.