Copy of “The Future of World Trade Isn’t About China’s Ships — It’s About What China Will Have Left to Ship.”

ANOTHER BIG WIN WIN ASPECT OF TRUMP'S ECONOMIC PACKAGE

For years, many in America’s media and policy class have insisted that the United States must accept a kind of permanent maritime dependence on China. We are told that China “builds the ships,” China “moves the trade,” and China “sets the standards” for global shipping. We’re told that going “green,” going “global,” and going “efficient” means surrendering our maritime sovereignty. And of course, any attempt to revive American shipbuilding or enforce U.S. control over U.S.-bound trade is framed as “isolationist.”

But this narrative has one fatal flaw:

It assumes China will always have goods worth shipping — and that America will always need China’s ships to receive them.

The reality is very different, and the numbers tell a far more sobering story for Beijing.

A 50% Drop in U.S. Imports From China Would Shatter China’s Export Model

China ships roughly $450 billion a year of goods to the United States. If the U.S. re-shored even half of that through a Trump-style industrial resurgence — manufacturing revival, energy sovereignty, domestic supply-chain rebuilding — then:

• China loses $225 billion in sales

• Approximately 7% of its entire export economy evaporates

• Tens of millions of Chinese workers see their factories slow or close

This alone is a severe shock, but the collapse is two-directional.

China Also Needs U.S. Raw Materials — And That Demand Would Collapse Too

China cannot manufacture at scale without U.S. inputs:

• soybeans

• LNG

• oil

• scrap metals

• chemicals

• agricultural products

Today, the U.S. exports $150 billion per year to China, of which the majority are raw materials.

If China’s production for the U.S. market shrinks by half, its demand for these inputs shrinks by half as well.

That’s another $70–75 billion removed from bilateral trade.

In total, a $300 billion contraction in two-way trade.

This is not marginal. This is structural.

Add One More Element: A Jones Act–Style Rule for ALL U.S. Foreign Trade

Imagine the U.S. requires that 80% of all U.S.-bound imports and exports — not just shipments between U.S. ports — must:

• be carried on U.S.-flagged vessels,

• crewed by U.S. mariners,

• and owned by U.S. companies.

This is not far-fetched.It is standard practice in other maritime nations.

The result?

China is simply cut out of the American shipping market.COSCO, OOCL, and Chinese-affiliated “flags of convenience” have no legal route into U.S. ports for U.S.-bound commerce.Overnight, China loses:

• the cargo and the ability to carry cargo

• the freight revenue

• the merchant fleet presence

• port intelligence

• leverage over global shipping lanes

Combined with the drop in cargo volume, China’s shipping lanes don’t shrink — they implode.

Global Shipping Suffers a Small Dent — China Suffers a Structural Defeat

If the U.S. moves half of its China-bound production home:

• global container demand drops maybe 3–4%

• U.S.–China shipping lanes drop 20–30%

• China’s bulk imports fall 40–50%

• Chinese shipyards’ overcapacity becomes unmanageable

• China’s ports lose tens of millions of TEUs of annual throughput

The global system continues.Shipping moves to other lanes.U.S. ships replace Chinese ships.

But China?China loses its business model.

The U.S. Comes Out Stronger

Re-shoring manufacturing + reviving U.S. shipbuilding + requiring U.S.-flag shipping =

• tens of thousands of new American maritime jobs

• rebuilt shipyards

• stronger military sealift

• regained logistics sovereignty

• independence from Chinese supply chains

• secure domestic production

This is not the world where America shrinks back into itself.This is a world where America stands up again — industrially, economically, and strategically.

The Real Question of the 2020s

The debate should never have been:

“Can we afford to stop relying on China’s cargo ships?”

It should always have been:

“What happens to China when we stop?”

The answer is simple:

China loses the cargo. China loses the ships.China loses the ports. China loses the ocean.

And America regains what it foolishly surrendered — the ability to move its own goods on its own ships with its own workers.

That’s not isolationism.That is sovereignty.