A distributed coalition is inherently more fragile than a unified command. Differences in rules of engagement, political red lines, and operational tempo can create hesitation at precisely the moments when clarity is required.

Now, with senior regime figures dead or sidelined, internal fissures widening, and Tehran signaling openness to negotiations with Washington, the conversation has shifted. Not whether Iran will change — but what kind of change is possible.

Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits this narrow passage, placing the economic lifeblood of the Gulf within reach of Iranian disruption.