Political transitions create opportunities—not only for the people seeking freedom—but also for governments, financial institutions, investors and policy organizations hoping to shape what comes next.

The broader strategic challenge remains unchanged: preserving freedom of navigation while reducing incentives for repeated militarization of disputed territory.

The political positions now appear to be: United States: The Strait must remain open; Iranian attacks will trigger military retaliation; economic relief is conditional; and the cost of protection may be transferred to commercial beneficiaries. Iran: Tehran continues to claim a right to authorize, tax, regulate, or close passage, while portraying attacks as enforcement actions or responses to American aggression. Gulf states: Governments increasingly hold Iran publicly resp